Champions League permutations: What Premier League sides need to qualify for knockout stage
ESPN’s Craig Burley doesn’t believe the Manchester City players should be refunding the fans after their 3-1 defeat to Bodø/Glimt in the UEFA Champions League. (2:05)
It’s been a successful Champions League campaign so far for the six Premier League sides who entered — but there’s still plenty to play for ahead of the final matchweek.
Here, ESPN rounds up what every team needs to seal their place in the round of 16.
The final games take place on Wednesday, Jan. 28.
What’s at stake?
The teams that finish first through in the top eight get to skip the knockout playoff round in the Champions League.
Everyone who finishes ninth through 24th will go head-to-head in that round in February, and those in 25th to 36th are eliminated.
On top of that, with the new UEFA rule for this year’s Champions League — the League Phase carries even greater weight.
Teams who finish in the top four are guaranteed a second leg at home in the round of 16 and the quarterfinals. The advantage extends into the semifinals for the teams that finish in the top two. The two legs had previously been decided by an open draw.
There’s also a “seeding” system, which was introduced for 2024-25, which means the highest-placed teams won’t face each other until the late stages of the knockout rounds.
Have any English teams already qualified?
Arsenal, with a 100% record, are guaranteed to finish first or second, and thus take a top seeding position in the bracket.
Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, Newcastle, Manchester City are guaranteed to finish at least in the knockout playoff round, but none of them have sealed their places in the top eight yet.
What do they need in the final matchweek?
Liverpool
Position: 4th
Points: 15
Goal difference: +6
Final game: vs Qarabag (h)
Wednesday’s 3-0 win in Marseille lifted Liverpool up to fourth place, level with Real Madrid on 15 points, and victory at Anfield against Qarabag will see them get through in the top-eight — with a top-four slot more than likely.
A point could still be enough but with just two points separating them and 13th-placed Atalanta, Arne Slot’s side would then be relying on other results to seal direct qualification.
Tottenham
Position: 5th
Points: 14
Goal difference: +8
Final game: Entracht Frankfurt (a)
Thomas Frank’s side gave their top-eight chances a huge boost by beating Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday to climb to fifth, one point behind Liverpool, and a direct route to the round of 16 also lies in their own hands. Victory over already-eliminated Eintracht Frankfurt in Germany will guarantee Tottenham a place in the knockout stage, while a point might not be enough.
Newcastle
Position: 7th
Points: 13
Goal difference: +10
Final game: Paris Saint-Germain (a)
After sweeping aside PSV Eindhoven 3-0 at St James’ Park on Wednesday, Newcastle climbed to seventh and like all the English clubs they are guaranteed at least a playoff place.
Eddie Howe’s side face a daunting trip to reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain in their final tie and hope a famous win at the Parc des Princes will be enough to seal a direct route to the knockout rounds. A draw would leave them vulnerable and with PSG sixth, the fact those teams cannot both win helps the other clubs on 13 points.
Chelsea
Position: 8th
Points: 13
Goal difference: +6
Final game:Napoli (a)
The Londoners laboured to a 1-0 home win against minnows Pafos on Wednesday, but kept their hopes alive. Liam Rosenior’s side sit eighth, in the last qualification place on goal difference. But they are one of eight clubs level on 13 points and realistically must beat Napoli in Italy in their final match and rely on coming through on goal difference.
Manchester City
Position: 11th
Points: 13
Goal difference: +4
Final game: Galatasaray (h)
City slipped to 11th place on Tuesday after falling victim to a shock 3-1 defeat to Norwegian side Bodo/Glimt and must beat Galatasaray at the Etihad Stadium to give themselves a strong chance of a top-eight finish — though with seven other teams alongside them on 13 points it could come down to goal difference.
A point could still be enough to avoid a two-legged playoff, but only in the event of a set of highly unlikely results elsewhere.
What are the league phase tiebreakers?
1 – Goal difference
2 – Goals scored
3 – Away goals scored
4 – Wins
5 – Away wins
6 – Higher number of total points collected by league phase opponents
7 – Higher goal difference attained of league phase opponents
8 – Higher goals scored by league phase opponents
9 – Disciplinary points
10 – UEFA club coefficient
When is the draw for the knockout round playoffs?
The draw for the knockout round playoffs — featuring the clubs that finish ninth to 24th — will take place on Jan. 30 at 11 a.m. GMT.
Information from PA was used in this report.


Leave a Reply